Another pointless thread

Yep, Lubbyman's got it.

There's another way of looking at it too. Now, this disease is a pandemic, which means pretty much EVERYONE will eventually get it. It is simply a matter of when. You then have to get people to ask of themselves:

- Am I willing to catch it right now, right when the ICUs are nearing capacity?
- Am I happy to risk exposing others?
- Or can I just slow down my life for a small period of time and help to reduce the infection rate?

I was abroad in the Gulf when the 2009 H1N1 pandemic was announced. Many millions did not catch or suffer from H1N1. To state that a pandemic means "pretty much everyone" is some what alarmist.

Look at the major pandemics

Thank you. A career in risk and safety, often being the person who brings unwelcome news, has not been in vain!

And you've got it (almost) right, too.

That, too, is correct. It isn't being a pandemic which means that "pretty much everyone" will get it. Pretty much everyone gets it because of the lack of immunity and the number of people that each infected person manages to infect. For the number of cases to stop increasing, the average number of new infections per person must be less that 1. Last time I looked, it was greater than 2 in the UK. That is very bad - if you infect 2 people and each of them infects 2 more, after 10 transmissions you have contributed to the infection of about 1000 people. Now multiply that by the number of people currently infected... It's called exponential growth (that's the mathematical meaning, not the sloppy colloquial meaning) and it doesn't stop until either almost everyone has been infected or - the better option - the average number of people that each infected person infects drops to below 1 (a lot below 1 if you want it to die away quickly).

Just to be clear what a pandemic is, it's a disease spreading by person to person contact in multiple countries around the world. That might be slow or fast, lethal or non-lethal. HIV/AIDS was/is a pandemic but quite different to flu or Covid-19. The World Health Organisation officially declared Covid-19 a pandemic because lots of countries were largely ignoring it. Once it is officially declared a pandemic, they ought to take notice (that's the theory, anyway). The virus doesn't care whether anyone calls it a pandemic or not, it just does its stuff. An epidemic is a local spread of a disease (e.g. mainly within a country).

Steve

Yes of course, the true reason is lack of immunity. The fact that it's also very infectious disease which won't simply 'go away' means that most people will probably pick it up at some point.

Then the rest of my post still makes sense (in that if were going to catch it, it may as well be later on when there's relatively lower strain on the health services)

Just seen the BBC News at Ten report from Rome. Never mentioned a shortage of masks or testing kits unlike the report from Spain that preceded it showing a female nurse or doctor in tears pleading for PPE and for people to stay indoors.

Oddly, not a single mention that Russia, China and Cuba have and continue to send testing kits, masks and medical specialists to Italy after the Italian government asked them for help.

I'm pretty sure I've seen a news item on that in the last couple of days. Can't be bothered to check though. With the speed this thing is going, news from 2 days ago is old news.

Steve

Follow the medical advice. This virus is not the flu. The sight of all those idiots treating this last weekend as a bank holiday is disgusting. They are consigning many hundreds and probably thousands to death for being selfish.

The stupidity is beyond me.

Round here the army were doing dry runs last week stopping cars and asking people what there business was. I hope they will be doing this for real now.

Naturally we get the urge to meet your friends and relatives because 'we don't have it', but honestly the only person that can guarantee that they don't have it is someone who has been self-isolating for so many weeks. That's why it's absolutely crazy to put it to chance.

In my city there's a fit and healthy 'under 30' year old who is intensive care, fighting for his life. Because of his age and condition we hope he'll make it but what we don't often remember is the lasting damage done to the lungs. If a similar disease later makes the rounds he'll be in a weaker position to fight it.

"Naturally" I do not want to catch the virus or pass it on unwittingly to anyone whether they be a friend or family or stranger.

We are being asked to stay at home. It is not difficult.

Unfortunately, I still have to work. [Our] business is identified as a key industry so it's very much business as usual, which causes a headache for when the other half goes back to work (NHS) after her week off which she booked at the beginning of the year. I've told her to advise work of her asthma so that might allow her to 'work from home', though how she'll prepare drugs in an aseptic environment at home is questionable...

Otherwise, we'll need to walk the dogs, perhaps twice a day (rather than the usual 3) with the OH taking them out in the morning and me taking them out after work. We've practiced social distancing while walking dogs since it was recommended, though, so we're certainly going to continue with that.

It really is an interesting/bizarre time.

My partner works in the care industry. He is continuing to work although is setting up to be able to do most of it from home. There will still be emergencies where he will actually have to do a call which means going into an elderly persons home and have very close contact with them. It would be tragic if he becomes ill or passes on the virus because he caught it from someone who did not need to be out and about. Same applies to anyone who cannot stay home because they have to physically be in work ranging from NHS staff to petrol station attendants.

I have been isolating as a precaution for a week now which means an occasional visit to the supermarket, and a street walk with the dogs avoiding contact with others. Today we have a wealth of ways of communicating with friends and family without having to see them face to face.

Any unnecessary contact is shameful selfish and deadly behaviour.

Agreed, I think we're approaching this in a similar manner as we can given our separate circumstances surrounding work. If us two, with dogs and distinct work schedules can approach it as we have, then others can certainly do their bit.

It was tremendously sad to hear of people queueing in traffic to get into the small down nearby, or children mingling in playgrounds in record numbers yesterday which forced the closure of all parks in the city. Some people really haven't got their head screwed on.

Is two days the new guideline or can we reduce that to 30 minutes?

There has just been a live interview on the BBC with a director of a company in Milton Keynes explaining that they make surgical masks and gowns and contacted the UK Gov at the start of this and were told by the government that they didn't need any PPE from them as they had enough. They contacted the UK Gov again and were told the same. The company are sending huge quantities abroad to governments that do need them.

So do I assume that the video's and reports of doctors and nurses in the UK, requesting PPE that we are seeing are propaganda or alarmist or old news?

That particular interview should be taken quite seriously. No shortage of PPE equipment in the UK except where it's needed, on the front line.

With all respect Steve, repetitive, regurgitation of the same news by the media does not help people. There's a lot of obvious questions not being asked by the MSM.

My OH suggested that in the hospital she works in there is a deficit of masks and that they are struggling to obtain more. Same goes for hand gels and alcohol sprays for aseptics isolators/clean rooms, but that's a global shortage really.

Well it’s better than the US initiative to persuade garment manufacturers to make masks, it turns out they are using standard fabrics which are useless for blocking viruses so hospitals won’t use them. The gullible public will though thinking they are safe.