Or to put it another way, those masks are made of totally pointless thread.

Steve

I'm pretty sure I've seen a news item on that in the last couple of days. Can't be bothered to check though. With the speed this thing is going, news from 2 days ago is old news.

Steve

Thank you. A career in risk and safety, often being the person who brings unwelcome news, has not been in vain!

And you've got it (almost) right, too.

That, too, is correct. It isn't being a pandemic which means that "pretty much everyone" will get it. Pretty much everyone gets it because of the lack of immunity and the number of people that each infected person manages to infect. For the number of cases to stop increasing, the average number of new infections per person must be less that 1. Last time I looked, it was greater than 2 in the UK. That is very bad - if you infect 2 people and each of them infects 2 more, after 10 transmissions you have contributed to the infection of about 1000 people. Now multiply that by the number of people currently infected... It's called exponential growth (that's the mathematical meaning, not the sloppy colloquial meaning) and it doesn't stop until either almost everyone has been infected or - the better option - the average number of people that each infected person infects drops to below 1 (a lot below 1 if you want it to die away quickly).

Just to be clear what a pandemic is, it's a disease spreading by person to person contact in multiple countries around the world. That might be slow or fast, lethal or non-lethal. HIV/AIDS was/is a pandemic but quite different to flu or Covid-19. The World Health Organisation officially declared Covid-19 a pandemic because lots of countries were largely ignoring it. Once it is officially declared a pandemic, they ought to take notice (that's the theory, anyway). The virus doesn't care whether anyone calls it a pandemic or not, it just does its stuff. An epidemic is a local spread of a disease (e.g. mainly within a country).

Steve

There are two differences between Covid-19 and a flu epidemic.

The first difference is that nobody - literally nobody - has any immunity to Covid-19 unless and until they have been infected and survived. That means there is nothing to stop it until most of the population has had it. Even a small death rate means a huge number of deaths. They will be heavily weighted to the most vulnerable - the elderly, those with other medical conditions etc. etc. HMG changed strategy because they were facing the prospect of 1/4 million deaths. They are now aiming for a much lower figure apparently (less than 20,000 deaths would be a good result).

That doesn't happen with flu because of two things. First, with some seasonal flu, many people are immune because they've encountered a similar variety in previous years. Second, vaccines are developed quickly and given to the most vulnerable before the epidemic takes hold. That keeps the number of flu deaths to a relatively low level, even when there is a quite different variant of the virus.

The second difference is that a flu epidemic is spread out during the winter (it's to do with immunity in the population). It puts hospitals under strain but is generally managable in most places. Covid-19, however, spreads very quickly so hospitals across the country will be swamped very quickly too unless very drastic measures are taken. That means lots of people will die who would survive if the epidemic were spread out like flu.

As for 'how many people would have died anyway', the answer is 'all of them, eventually'. It's better to look at it in terms of premature death and years of life lost. How much is an extra year of life worth? If it's a much loved family member? If it's you?

Sorry to go on for so long, but it's very important that people do not regard this as just like a flu epidemic. It might have much the same symptoms, but the effect on the population is potentially very much worse. Which is why drastic measures are justified.

Well done to all who are following the official advice. You might be saving a few lives. Perhaps even yours...

Steve

OK, I won't. But I might speculate if you don't tell.

Steve

I stocked up with potting compost, lawn fertiliser and bean seeds last week. Got 'em from the local branch of a chain of animal/farm/country shops. No shortage of seeds. Plenty of bread, cheese and good beer too (took me by surprise, so had to buy some:mrgreen. They'd run out of toilet rolls and sanitiser products for humans, though.

There was Jeyes Fluid on the shelves, but I'm not sure it would be a good idea to wipe the furniture with it. Although perhaps there's a hint of it's value for the current epidemic from a Victorian doctor who attributed a good survival rate from scarlet fever to "patients are given frequent warm baths, beginning at the end of the first week. Warm baths with some Jeyes' fluid in them are used, the latter preventing the spread of the infection.". DON'T TRY THAT AT HOME, FOLKS!!

Steve

I see what you mean - Match of the Day talking about matches that aren't of the day. Major channels showing repeats that have already been broadcast this week on the minor channels. Wife watching something cultural and literary on catch-up TV. I suppose live broadcasts and new recordings are now rather imited in what they can do.

Anyone see the The Last Leg this week? They managed to turn social-distancing on stage and no audience into something funny and worth seeing. But it won't be back until after the epidemic.

Steve

It looks like a very fine picture of a very fine grouse.

I trust the two of you were social-distancing, the thought of grouse-virus-20 crossing the species barrier doesn't bear thinking about.

Steve

Because it's ageist - how is someone of my somewhat advanced years meant to cope with the weight of a crate of bottled beer in a basket??

Try getting a delivery slot in the next few weeks!!!!

On a more serious note, my GP daughter encoutered her first probable case of the virus today (and if it wasn't Covid-19 it was a very good imitation). Scary. Particularly as the protective equipment available is very basic (yes, what you see on the TV is true).

Steve

That's an evil looking beast! And a good shot of it, too. Every cloud has a silver lining...

Steve