A decline in DSLR sales threatens camera companies

I don't know, I've never understood people who do, my point was that whatever proportion of people have previously upgraded most product cycles, that proportion is likely to decrease as they become more and more satisfied with their current model.

Personally, I'm currently considering upgrading my K10D to a K-5II or K3, really hoping I can stretch to a K3 since I'm unlikely to upgrade again for at least 5 years.

True enough, though you can plausibly read the currency movements of the past year as the tentative beginning of a realignment with pre-2008 levels and reckon that Japanese companies have lost quite a bit because of unfavourable exchange rates since the financial crisis, even with recent price increases in some areas taken into account.

I wasn't disagreeing with this. Even if it's true, if more people are buying Pentax because the range (of bodies and lenses) is so much better than it used to be, it may be enough for Pentax sales to continue to increase.

I'd still challenge the premise though. I can only speak for myself, but when I got the K10D, initially at any rate, it satisfied me far more than the K-5 did - my ability, aspirations and expectations have increased much faster than the technology, so I now want to be able to push the hardware harder than I ever did with the K10D.

There are so many possible things to take pictures of that become available as the technology advances - fast action shots, shots in the dark (-3EV for instance ), to name but two, that I don't think the K-3 will exhaust the possibilities.

That doesn't mean that I'll be capable of getting the very best out of the camera though - just that my best will be better than it was before.

I'm in the market for a new phone and camera. Pentax could clean up if they offered a weather sealed mobile with a K mount

While I disagree about making sweeping assumptions about "the casual user" I do agree about the bizarre case of not putting GPS into DSLRs

I GPS tag my photos as I love to have them categorised by location. Especially when there's a good time gap between them and I can look at the the changes in the scenes

Smeggy - perhaps I should clarify what I meant by "casual user".. We are all members of this site because, by and large, we enjoy photography as a hobby/pastime, and are prepared to devote a bit more time to it. What I meant by "casual user" is someone that invariably takes pictures "on the fly", with little, or no post-processing to try and enhance the shot. I know that some folks may use their smartphone to quickly grab a shot of a scene where they may later revisit with a "proper" camera by way of conducting a pre-assessment of the scene, and its potential usage. A large percentage of the time though, a photo captured on a smartphone is the "here's me next to a poster of Justin Beiber" - type of shot - something to show around their circle of friends, and nothing much more than that.

As I see it, the DSLR is dropping back into it's photo enthusiast roots instead of the techno-geek gadgetry position they've had for the last few years. When DSLRs started to become widespread, they appeared in all manor of techno media places and suddenly became a 'must-have' gadget. The lenses too (now they've got serious technology inside - and a dozen buttons on the outside) were worshiped as well.

I know many people who (not having much interest in photography) went out and bought serious DSLRs and high end zooms because they could (they're changing their iPhones & iPads every six months too).

For this group of people there are now newer and sexier options - it's all about 'form factor' (usually brushed aluminium or retro designs) and increasing MP counts. For them, DSLRs are looking old hat and they're more interesed in something running Android or similar.

DSLR sales will probably fall, but this will mostly be those who are not photo enthusiasts finding different (sexier/smaller) products which take the pictures they want more conveniently than a DSLR would manange. I don't think Pentax is likely to suffer as much as most as I feel their user base is more aligned with the enthusiasts anyway.

Exactly

this is the future.
if Pentax wants a piece of it, I hope they bring out a fully modular LX-D model to compete with this.
same FF sensor as this sony, but with all the features of the new k-3, but with interchangeable components like mirror less, half silvered mirror or full -dslr mirror boxes.. all k mount... optional waist level finder, evf finder or prism finder.....

k-01 on steroids built like a lego set, just snap the pieces you want together to build the camera based on how you intend to use it...
new sony



then when the next generation sensor comes out, Pentax/ricoh users will buy the camera sensor modual, but keep everything else... new camera back comes out, just buy the camera back, keep everything else.

If you really mean this, you should definitely do all you can to get the K-3.

Let's say the difference in price is about 400 quid. Over 5 years, that's 22p per day.

If necessary, buy it from Jessops on interest-free.

I'm not so sure that's the future Don. I've handled cameras like that and they aren't a patch on a DSLR for serious photography.

They're also not a patch on a compact camera such as the Ricoh GR when it comes to pocketability.

For me, you either want to take a DSLR with you or not and if not you probably just want something you can slip in a pocket. These in-between designs seem a bit of a botch to me.

However, take the concept and make it medium format and you might just end up with a 645RF that could be a new sector of the market with utterly stunning quality.

agree medium format version is badly needed.

but I stand by my prediction that we are one or two releases from a d-slr killer mirror less system...
they are in the for seeable future they are for the people that want one camera for everything, photo and video from snaps to pro work to cinema quality video film making..

the first system that can match a k-50 for stills, and a Blackmagic cinema pocket for 4k video at a reasonable price point will kill the d-slr market.

if the k-01 had the video abilities of the blackmagic designs pocket 4k camera... I'd have bough three of them.

Funny you should say that John, I'm developing a 40 Megapixel detatchable insert with integral GPS* for my Pentax 645N. The model will be released as the 645N-L/10-20. The insert will be pocketable, and also work as a stand alone point and shoot. Slight problems with vignetting at the moment, but looks the biz!



* also useful for instant uploading to the web and phone calls.

There is a serious discussion to be had around the optical viewfinder. That single 'option' requires significant hardware and space. Take that away, as you do when you use liveview, and you've got the same lens and sensor, just without the volume the optical viewfinder consumes.

I'm a fan of the optical viewfinder, but if I push myself to say why, a lot of it has to do with the stability the position you hold it in gives you and the obvious that it's in line with your eyes anyway. The end result is going to come from the light entering the lens and being directed to the sensor, so that's not influenced by the optical viewfinder.

Point of all that is that I really do expect the DSLR as we know it to take a dive sales wise. Not from users like ourselves, but from casual snappers looking for something that fits in their pocket. That makes the portable products far more likely to end up in some unexpected places, especially on holidays etc where you don't want to be lugging a big bit of kit around with you.

4k video is out now, I just got a pamphlet in the mailbox about it. The future for anything 'high end' has got to be heading towards this level of video output. Video is just lots of low res stills, given full HD is a 2MP resolution. That's got to be addressed at some stage. I'm surprised GPS isn't included more. My VERY cheap android cell phone has GPS. Wifi I'm personally not worried about, given the K-3 has USB 3 and/or I just take the card out anyway. Tethering may require wifi, but I doubt I'll use a DSLR for much off a tablet in all honestly.

Mirrorless is surely the future for the vast majority of cameras in my opinion. For most consumers the optical view finder just isn't going to be a priority over reduced size.

Indeed. I acutally like "live view" but holding the camera tothe head does give stability. It's so easy to move the caemra when firing the shutter holding it at more arms length.

Maybe that's why a lot of phone cam and compacy pics are blurred